"What's that? Ah--[Sidney Crosby]? Don't talk about--[Sidney Crosby]! You kidding me?! [Sidney Crosby]?! I just hope we can win a game! Another game!"

Can't agree with you more Jim, because we gotta talk about Playoffs!?!

Playoffs?!?! Play-offs!?!

Alright, we get it. Moving on...


DISCLAIMER: All predictions made in this article were written before the puck dropped in the opening round. I'm not the kind of cheap bastard that would wait until he's seen how series seem to be unfolding before he made a prediction. Actually, I am that kind of cheap bastard, I just didn't do it in this case.

Pittsburgh - Tampa Bay

I think there are 3 keys to this series. And for everyone that likes old school game shows, I will reveal them to you in "Password" form.

and the 1st password is...


Special Teams.

BUZZ!!!

Crap. I always sucked at password. Anyway.

Special teams are important in every series, but for the Pens-Lightning I think it's more specific than that. I think whoever wins the battle between Tampa's PP and the Pens PK will win the series.

Tampa was ranked 6th overall on the Power Play, but slowed a bit down the stretch as Stamkos cooled off.

The Penguins were 1st overall on the Penalty Kill, but came back down to Earth from their lofty 90% kill rate, in the last quarter of the season.

If Tampa puts up gaudy numbers, like 5 for 18, which is always possible in a short series they will win. But if the Pens can keep them closer to 2 for 20 they will take it.

Game 1 was a good start only getting to the box once. Limiting the penalties they take will be a huge advantage to them.

And the 2nd password is...

Don't worry I'm not stupid enough to tell you the password again.

1st clue - Crazy


Nothing? ok...
2nd clue - BIG


Still nothing?

3rd clue - Goooaal...

BUZZ!!!!

DAMNIT!!!

This game was a stupid idea. Anyway the 2nd key to the series is Fleury vs Roloson.

Again, this isn't exactly revolutionary stuff. Goaltending is a huge factor in playoff series, and the first game for all the teams showed that. But here's why I think it means a little extra in this one.

Roloson was a huge part of leading Edmonton to the finals in 2006. He's proven, like Fleury, that he can carry a team through multiple rounds. And in my opinion he is the best chance TB has of winning the series.

Which brings me back to my point. Contrary to popular belief Fleury does not need to play out of his mind for the Penguins to win the series. He just has to be better than Roloson. And not even significantly better.

If he can do that he will neutralize Tampa's best weapon and the Pens will win.

On to the 3rd password.

And I figured out a way not to screw this one up.

I'm just gonna use pictures that way I can't accidentally say the password.

So the 1st clue is...

Got it yet?

Alright, I'll give you another one...

Got it now?

Really? Fine, one more clue.

Seriously, you don't know it yet?!?

It was Martin St. Louis.

This game sucks.

Anyway.

He has 13g and 21a for 34 points in 32 games over in the last 8 seasons against us (which is about the time he started getting good.

Meanwhile Lecavlier has 24g in 37gms over about the same period of time but only 4 in his last 14. He feasted on the Pens when we sucked, but St. Louis has been their best player against us over the last 6 years.

Stamkos has been average against the Pens, had a poor end to his season and is in his 1st playoff series.

Lecavlier, as I showed, hasn't been particularly effective against us in recent years.

If Tampa's going to win this series, it's likely St. Louis is going to have to have a Cammalleri esque series. Otherwise, their done.

(Btw fun fact St. Louis has 66pts in 43 games against carolina. For a guy that averages around a point a game overall, that's crazy.)

Wrap-up

So those are my keys to the series. If the Pens win, I guarantee they will win at least 2 of these 3 match-ups. Otherwise, it's not only going to be a long series, but probably a disappointing one for Pens fans.

Prediction

Everyone always picks 6 or 7. It's the safest way to hedge your bets. Teams sweep series, teams win in 5, people just don't have the balls to say it.

Pens in 5

Other series

NYR suck. Washington in 5

PHI is awful right now, BUF is on fire. Sabres in 6

This is that series where you go a lot of games to make yourself seem smarter. BOS in 7.


VAN in 6
SJ in 4
PHX in 6
NSH in 7


Count it.

- the legend

WE'RE BAAAAACK

So I can’t even begin to tell you how excited I am for the NHL All-Star Game Fantasy Draft.

This would be my face the whole time if I was at the Draft.

Screw the game, the draft Friday night is going to be the main event.

There are already theories abound about the draft. Will Eric Staal intentionally not draft his brother just to make him sit there and stew? Are the captains going to draft their teammates? Countrymen? Friends? Are they going to pass over rivals? Are they going to try to snipe the players they know the other guy wants to draft?

There’s even talk of a collusion strategy where some of the highest scoring players don’t get drafted until the late rounds, because as some put it “they probably never got picked last in anything." You couldn't make that up.

I’m not going to pretend to know what’s going to happen at the draft, but I assure you something fun will.

For my glorious return to the blog I figured a two-part post was best. Up first are the odds for what I think might happen at the All-Star Draft on Friday. Part II is The Legend and The Law mock draft for Friday night, which I will post on Friday morning.

Betting odds on 2011 NHL ALL-STAR DRAFT

(remember all listed odds are for entertainment purposes only, gambling is not only illegal but really, really hard.)

1:2 Eric Staal does something to embarrass his brother

2:1 The Sedin twins switch places or fake being the other one if they get drafted separately

1:1 Someone gets drafted without the use of their name. i.e. “we’ll take the tall guy in the back”

10:1 Someone is traded during the draft for an inanimate object, such as equipment or food

500:1 Stone Cold Steve Austin’s intro music blasts halfway through the draft and Sidney Crosby comes tearing down the stage grabs the mic and screams “You jibroni’s didn’t think a little concussion was going to keep me out of the draft did you? Well I’m in the draft now, because Sid the Kid Said So!”

I would literally kill to see this

1:2 Then Max Talbot throws him two beers which Sid will crack on stage.

100:1 Jeremy Roenick shows up wearing a feather boa and announces his inclusion in the draft. “woooo”

150:1 Gary Bettman shows up in Paul Bearer make-up and announces that Kesler and Green turn heel on Eric Staal and join Team Lidstrom.

Which do you like better Paul Bettman or Gary Bearer?

(man these predictions really took a WWE turn somewhere in there)

+/-2.5 The number of references during the draft to all the players sticks being thrown into a pile and picking teams that way.

3:1 The odds that none of these things happen and I end up crying myself to sleep after getting trashed watching the draft because the NHL came up with a brilliant idea right on the heels of their good exposure during 24/7 and then failed to capitalize on it.